# Anchored Horizon — Bayesian commercial forecasting

With [Anchored Horizon](https://iridae.com/forecast/), game developers and studios get comp-based Bayesian commercial forecasts that stay current as the game and market change—distribution-first outlooks with honest uncertainty, not a midpoint dressed as certainty.

Studios reach the same capabilities through the UI, MCP tools, OpenAPI capability invoke, or A2A agent cards. See [Headless + Integrated](https://iridae.com/forecast/headless/) and the [Capabilities](https://iridae.com/forecast/capabilities/) catalog.

## How studios build a forecast

1. **Start from comparable games.** The system retrieves meaningfully similar titles, exposes why they were selected, and weights evidence by relevance, recency, and quality.
2. **Model the full range.** Studios see downside, expected, upside, and breakout as a full posterior predictive outlook—not a single point estimate.
3. **Keep confidence honest.** Strong evidence narrows the range; weak or conflicting evidence widens it instead of inventing spreadsheet confidence.

## Questions studios ask

| Intent | How Anchored Horizon helps |
| --- | --- |
| See uncertainty first | Studios work with the distribution, probability thresholds, and strength of evidence. |
| Explore what changes it | Teams reweight comps, adjust assumptions, and fork scenarios while the outlook reshapes. |
| Solve for the decision | What must be true to hit a target; how likely a result is; which input creates an acceptable chance of success. |
| Inverse constraints | e.g. wishlists needed six months out for a 70% chance of one million units. |
| Conflicting signals | Wishlist growth vs weak demo conversion—weighted by relevance, quality, and uncertainty. |
| Scope / deal tradeoffs | Cut multiplayer vs hold date; subscription guarantee vs upside; price and platform scenarios without a queue of bespoke models. |

## Living forecasts

Anchored Horizon maintains a current belief about the future for the studio—not a report that ages on publish:

- Wishlists, conversion, retention, experiments, and outcomes refine the distribution as they arrive.
- When reality surprises, teams see whether to recalibrate, investigate, or change course—and how much each factor moved the outlook.
- Updated distributions flow into scenarios, experiments, pathways, and capital decisions without collapsing to another static number.

## Connected systems

- **Comps & belief** — [Latent Spark](https://iridae.com/understand/) supplies comparable-game structure and living market position.
- **Paths** — [Patient Cartographer](https://iridae.com/plan/) consumes outlooks when studios evaluate strategic routes.
- **Evidence** — [Subtle Beacon](https://iridae.com/learn/) feeds experimental findings back into the forecast.

## Site map

- [Home](https://iridae.com/) — Iridae decision infrastructure for game studios

### [Latent Spark — Understand](https://iridae.com/understand/)

Calibrated game belief, comps, and market atlas

- [Overview](https://iridae.com/understand/)
- [Headless + Integrated](https://iridae.com/understand/headless/)
- [Capabilities](https://iridae.com/understand/capabilities/)
- [FAQ](https://iridae.com/understand/faq/)

### **Anchored Horizon — Forecast** (this page)

Comp-based Bayesian commercial forecasting

- **Overview** (this page)
- [Headless + Integrated](https://iridae.com/forecast/headless/)
- [Capabilities](https://iridae.com/forecast/capabilities/)
- [FAQ](https://iridae.com/forecast/faq/)

### [Patient Cartographer — Plan](https://iridae.com/plan/)

Live strategic pathfinding under uncertainty

- [Overview](https://iridae.com/plan/)
- [Portfolio](https://iridae.com/plan/portfolio/)
- [Capabilities](https://iridae.com/plan/capabilities/)
- [FAQ](https://iridae.com/plan/faq/)

### [Subtle Beacon — Learn](https://iridae.com/learn/)

Continuous Bayesian experimentation

- [Overview](https://iridae.com/learn/)
- [Capabilities](https://iridae.com/learn/capabilities/)
- [FAQ](https://iridae.com/learn/faq/)

### Also

- [Book a Demo](https://iridae.com/demo/)
- [Company](https://iridae.com/company/)
- [Careers](https://iridae.com/company/careers/)
- [Blog](https://iridae.com/blog/)
- [Legal](https://iridae.com/legal/)

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Canonical: https://iridae.com/forecast/